Work package 3
Vulnerability and socio-economic impacts (lead: TERI)
This WP focuses on the socio-economic impacts of future changes in water quantity and quality, taking into account the technical and administrative water allocation process and possible conflicts related to this. It will involve household level assessments and stakeholder interactions using participatory techniques to assess current water demand and utilization pattern. Socio-economic scenarios can be constructed for understanding changes in water demand in the future. This will include:
Activity 3.1: Vulnerability-analysis and socio-geographic development: As the impact of climate change on sectors and livelihoods is strongly dependent on the vulnerability and response capacity of the affected population, we will perform a vulnerability analysis for our case study sites, taking into account mainly vulnerabilities arising on the community and local level, but considering also relevant vulnerabilities on the provincial up to national level. This WP will build on relevant inputs from TERI’s ongoing study on vulnerability assessment in Maharashtra. To recognize future changes that might aggravate or reduce vulnerability or have an effect on water availability or quality as e.g. population increase or desertification of the drylands, we will map future trends using statistical data and expert opinion.
Acitivity 3.2: Outline the water allocation process and water availability considering institutional aspects: In order to assess the current patterns of utilization and dependency on water resources, multiple rounds of stakeholder interactions will be conducted. These interactions will be in the form of key informant interviews, institutional surveys, focus group discussions and workshops. Stakeholders will come from different administrative levels in charge of water allocation as e.g. the Water Resources Department, the Water Supply and Sanitation Board or The Groundwater Survey and Development Agency. A special focus lies on the water allocation between the urban and rural areas, as well as on water availability and allocation differences between the three seasons (summer, monsoon, winter).
Activity 3.3: Ascertainment of water demand in quanitity and quality: Published statistical data on quantitative water demand for the rural and urban areas will be complemented by information on qualitative water demand generated via household surveys and interviews with water administration (in close cooperation with activity 3.2). Aspects of water-storage and handling practices will be also considered. We will take into account the historic and actual situation as well as try to predict the future demand based on the results of WP 1, WP 2 and activity 3.1.
Activity 3.4: Assess the impact of water availability and quality on important sectors and livelihoods under “future normal” and “future extreme” conditions: Using scenarios developed in WP 1 and 2 and future socio-economic trends from activity 3.1, we will perform what-if-analyses. The first step within these analyses will be to define the impact points considering the vulnerabilities identified. In a second step the impacts will be quantified and finally simple adaptation options on household and sector level as e.g. use of copper vessel (Tambe et al, 2008) will be suggested (cooperation with activity 2.4).