Vulnerability and socio-economic impacts (lead: TERI)
This WP focuses on the socio-economic impacts of future changes in water quantity and quality, taking into account the technical and administrative water allocation process and possible conflicts related to this. It will involve household level assessments and stakeholder interactions using participatory techniques to assess current water demand and utilization pattern. Socio-economic scenarios can be constructed for understanding changes in water demand in the future. This will include:
Activity 3.1: Vulnerability-analysis and socio-geographic development: As the impact of climate change on sectors and livelihoods is strongly dependent on the vulnerability and response capacity of the affected population, we will perform a vulnerability analysis for our case study sites, taking into account mainly vulnerabilities arising on the community and local level, but considering also relevant vulnerabilities on the provincial up to national level. This WP will build on relevant inputs from TERI’s ongoing study on vulnerability assessment in Maharashtra. To recognize future changes that might aggravate or reduce vulnerability or have an effect on water availability or quality as e.g. population increase or desertification of the drylands, we will map future trends using statistical data and expert opinion.
Acitivity 3.2: Outline the water allocation process and water availability considering institutional aspects: In order to assess the current patterns of utilization and dependency on water resources, multiple rounds of stakeholder interactions will be conducted. These interactions will be in the form of key informant interviews, institutional surveys, focus group discussions and workshops. Stakeholders will come from different administrative levels in charge of water allocation as e.g. the Water Resources Department, the Water Supply and Sanitation Board or The Groundwater Survey and Development Agency. A special focus lies on the water allocation between the urban and rural areas, as well as on water availability and allocation differences between the three seasons (summer, monsoon, winter).
Activity 3.3: Ascertainment of water demand in quanitity and quality: Published statistical data on quantitative water demand for the rural and urban areas will be complemented by information on qualitative water demand generated via household surveys and interviews with water administration (in close cooperation with activity 3.2). Aspects of water-storage and handling practices will be also considered. We will take into account the historic and actual situation as well as try to predict the future demand based on the results of WP 1, WP 2 and activity 3.1.
Activity 3.4: Assess the impact of water availability and quality on important sectors and livelihoods under “future normal” and “future extreme” conditions: Using scenarios developed in WP 1 and 2 and future socio-economic trends from activity 3.1, we will perform what-if-analyses. The first step within these analyses will be to define the impact points considering the vulnerabilities identified. In a second step the impacts will be quantified and finally simple adaptation options on household and sector level as e.g. use of copper vessel (Tambe et al, 2008) will be suggested (cooperation with activity 2.4).
WP 1: Climate change impacts on water availability (lead: TERI)
The first WP aims to depict water availability today and in the future. This WP will capture the physical dimensions of changes in the climate as well as water resources using modelling and statistical analysis. It will generate scenarios of exposure to extreme events over a high spatial resolution of 25*25 km and for specific future time slices e.g. 2030s, 2050s, 2070s and 2100. Results from WP 1 will feed into WP 2 and 3 to link changes in physical parameters to impacts on the natural and human systems. WP 1 encompasses the following activities:
Activity 1.1: Assemblage of data on past climate and water availability in Maharashtra: For predicting future climate conditions it is necessary to establish a good database on historic conditions. We will therefore collect historical observational data e.g. from the Indian Meteorological Department and the Hydrological Information System (HIS) and conduct a literature review of past trends in climate extremes in Maharashtra. Moreover we will identify flood and drought prone areas, to improve the selection of water testing sites (activity 2.2).
Activity 1.2: Construct a baseline for average water availability and extreme events using observational climate records: For climate projections, a regional climate model called PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies) is used. PRECIS is an atmospheric and land surface model of limited area and high resolution which is locatable over any part of the globe. Th horizontal resultion is either 50 or 25 km, depending on the data base.
Activity 1.3: Validation of model baseline using the historical observational data: The constructed baseline for PRECIS model will be validated using observational data from Indian Meteorological Department, records or through other available sources. The data for validation will be independent from the data used for the construction of the baseline.
Activity 1.4: Develop projections for average water availability and extreme events (“future normal” and “future extreme” conditions): Applying PRECIS, projections for average water availability and of extremes under a moderate and extreme climate future will be developed for specific time-slices (for example 2030s, 2050s, 2070s and 2100s) at 25km by 25km spatial resolution using relevant IPCC scenarios.
Activity 1.5: Assessment of future climate impacts on surface water availability: Surface water availability will be assessed using simplified hydrological model approaches based on Hydrologic Response Units as e.g. the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Climate projections come from activity 1.4, socio-economic trends from activity 3.1. The results will help us to evaluate the effects of climate change on streamflow regimes and groundwater recharge rate and identify drought prone areas.
Climate change impacts on water quality (lead: FMR and FRCH)
In WP 2 the impacts of climate change on water quality are assessed under consideration of socio-economic changes. Beside physio-chemical water quality parameters we will lay a special focus on microorganisms which may cause diseases in humans including. E. coli as an indicator of faecal contamination and specific pathogens like Vibrio cholerae. Activities in this WP are:
Activity 2.1: Establish a data base on historical data on water quality, supplemented with new water analysis: Historical data on water quality e.g. from Tambe et al (2008) and Bahador et al. (2004 and 2005) will be collected and linked to climate and hydrological data. Additional water sampling under varying weather conditions will be performed (see activity 2.2.). Afterwards the data will be analyzed for correlations between climate and hydrological parameters and water quality.
Activity 2.2: Water sampling and analysis: To find out how weather conditions influence water quality we will analyse water samples over nearly the whole project period. The first year we will screen several drinking water sources in our case study areas as e.g. water reservoirs, rivers, bore holes, standposts and household supplies, to indentify “hot spots” with poor water quality. The sampling stations will be located in flood and drought prone areas (input from activity 1.1 and based on experience from former studies). The sampling campaigns will be accomplished under different weather conditions as e.g. beginning, middle and end of dry season and monsoon season, and in certain time intervals after rainfall events. The samples will be analysed for faecal indicator bacteria (e.g. E. coli, coliforms and enterococci) and standard physio-chemical parameters (conductivity, turbidity, nutrients, etc.).
In year 2 and 3 sampling will be limited to identified hot-spots and triggering weather events, but the samples will undergo a more extensive analytical programme, including total coliforms, enterococci (and Clostridium perfringens) as indicators for faecal contamination. A few specific pathogenic bacteria (like V. cholerae, Salmonella spp., or Campyobacter spp), parasitic protozoa (Cryptosporidium and Giardia) or viruses (like rotavirus, hepatitis or others) may be included depending on the results from the literature study about emerging pathogens (activity 2.3). Additionally also emerging substances like pesticide residuals or heavy metals will be analysed if relevant for the choosen hotspots.
Activity 2.3: Literature review on emerging substances and microorganisms affecting water quality: To define future “threats” to water quality a literature study on emerging substances and organisms under changing climate and socio-geographic conditions (input from activity 3.1) will be perfomed.
Activity 2.4: Develop scenarios for “future normal” and “future extreme” conditions for water quality and suggest water improvement options: Considering the results of activity 2.1 to 2.3, future water availability and climate conditions (WP 1) and socio-geographic trends (activity 3.1), different scenarios, which reflect future conditions of water quantity and quality will be developed. The scenarios will be develop offsetting factors which affect the magnitude of pollution as e.g. population growth, intensified agricultural development against factors affecting the dilution as e.g. water flow, retention. Based on these scenarios we will suggest water improvement options including optimised drinking water treatment at plant level (cooperation with activity 3.4).
Adaptation, cross-sectoral water allocation and dissemination of the results (lead: NIVA)
In the last WP adaptation options for “future normal” and “future extreme” conditions will be identified and discussed and a decision support tool for arising water allocation conflicts will be developed. This work will be done in close cooperation with stakeholders, which promotes the dissemination of the project-results. WP 4 includes the following activities:Activity 4.1: Integration of the project results in a GIS (Geographic Information System): The project results gained in WP 1, 2 and 3 will be stored in a GIS to serve as a basis for the discussion on adaptation options and for the development of a decision support tool (activity 4.2 and 4.3). Possible users of the GIS in water administration will be contacted to figure out their needs for a future use of the GIS.
Activity 4.2: Development of decision support tool for cross sectoral water-allocation: Under water scarcity the main problem is the allocation of the available water. Optimally all users would get enough water to cover their demand, if this is not possible all users should get a certain amount of water, so that the overall impact of the shortage to the society is minimized. We will apply a method, which is based on the Pressure-Impact Multi-Criteria Environmental Flow Analysis (PIMCEFA), but has to be refined for water scarce conditions. Urban and rural water user interests will be represented and future trends identified in WP 1-3 will be considered. The tool itself will be based on the software “Definite”. Results will be discuss with stakeholders in a workshop (in close cooperation with activity 4.3).
Activity 4.3: Outline and discuss adaptation options in close cooperation with stakeholders: The results gained in all WPs will be presented to stakeholders in a workshop, which also serves as dissemination workshop. Adaptation options will be discussed considering the impacts as well as the vulnerability aspects. Stakeholders will come from public administration on local, provincial and if necessary national level. Non-governmental organisations (NGOs) acting in the water sector will also be invited. A special focus will lie on the implementation of suggested adaptation measures (input from activity 2.4 and 3.4).