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ENCORE - ENvironmental CO-exposure and Risk Estimation (Cefic-LRI ECO66)

ENCORE is led by Karel Viaene at ARCHE Consulting. The objective of ENCORE is to develop a probabilistic modelling framework for estimation of environmental risk of chemical mixtures in watersheds across Europe.

A map showing the main rivers in Europe.

About the project

EU’s Chemicals Strategy for Sustainability aims to incorporate "combined exposure" risks, stemming from unintentional chemical mixtures in the environment, into regulatory risk assessments. A Mixture Allocation Factor (MAF) has been proposed to lower all safety limits for single chemicals. However, recognising the shortcomings of MAF for the management of co-exposures of environmental relevance, CEFIC-LRI called for a project ECO66 for next generation risk assessment methods supporting the identification of environmental co-exposures of potential concern. The resulting project ENCORE (ENvironmental CO-exposure and Risk Estimation) aims to develop a probabilistic modelling framework to identify priority chemicals for co-exposure risk at the watershed level across Europe. The ENCORE framework builds upon an environmental fate model originally developed in the EU project SOLUTIONS for large-scale European domains, but is adaptable to specific regions, such as the Rhine and Danube river basins.

In chemical risk modelling, epistemic uncertainty and natural variability are both unavoidable. ENCORE will develop a probabilistic framework to allow for integration of multiple sources of information, as well as uncertainty from both exposure and hazard information throughout the risk model. NIVA wil contribute with Bayesian network (BN) methodology, used to update prior probabilities from process-based simulation data with new evidence from monitoring data. By integrating national chemical use and emission information with local monitoring data, ENCORE aims to improve the accuracy of model predictions for specific watersheds. For this purpose, key data sources include the pan-European publicly available datasets Waterbase Emissions (WISE-1) and Waterbase Water Quality (WISE-6), hosted by the European Environment Agency (EEA). Furthermore, BN models will be developed for case studies for efficient exploration of alternative emission scenarios, alternative approaches to mixture risk characterisation, and other modelling aspects. Ultimately, ENCORE aims to prioritize high-risk co-exposure chemicals by accounting for spatial and temporal exposure patterns across large regions of Europe.