Reply to Bogstad et al. (2025) ‘Comment on “Repeated large declines in the Barents Sea capelin populations are associated with different ecosystem conditions” by Olsen et al. (2024)’

Sammendrag

Herring predates on young capelin in the Barents Sea (BS), which affects the recruitment of BS capelin. However, our modelling study does not support the hypothesis that Bogstad et al. advocated that herring predation is necessary for the observed large declines (collapses) of the BS capelin population. What Bogstad et al. do not consider is the magnitude of the herring predation effect compared to other influences on the population dynamics of capelin. Our results suggest that while herring significantly reduced age-0 abundance of capelin at the start of the collapses, these reductions were probably not the main cause of the subsequent large population declines. All models have limitations, but we do not agree with Bogstad et al. that model limitations were the reason for our findings on the importance of herring predation for capelin biomass collapses.